3rd Party Hero Statistical Testing -- UPDATED 2 March 2025 -- You can find me at GtG Forums, BGG, and Discord under the yakguardian/Yak Guardian Screenname.
Deck Tracker -- SotM Stuff

Introduction

        Back when I first started building custom Sentinels decks (Yak Guardian, Young Justice, Matriarch Redeemed) for the then-planned-to-be-much-larger Crossover Crisis set, I took the first working deck (Young Justice) to my gaming group where my friend Scott was convinced that the deck was overpowered. Tired of arguing with him about it, I started working out a means of statistical testing of Hero decks. Given all the variables in Sentinels, I decided the first step was to control as many of those variables as I could. I also needed a scenario that was relatively fast, generally winnable , and not too swingy. Ultimately, I chose Ra, KNYFE, and the Hero being tested, versus Baron Blade at the Mobile Defense Platform. The MDP was selected because it mostly stays out of your way. As I was using Ra and KNYFE in the scenario, that gave me 24 (pre-OblivAeon) Heroes to test to for a baseline. I dug into my old Statistics textbooks and concluded that with that population size, I needed at least 5 data points for each to have a fair distribution. Thus I went with 5 wins for the stats (except for Win Percentage).

        Yes, there are flaws in the Methodology. This was never intended as a be-all-end-all solution for measuring Hero decks. What it is, though, is a tool for my toolbox when measuring the strengths of other people's Heroes and when developing my own. Your mileage may vary...

Methodology

        In addition to Win Percentage, the stats I decided to collect are Survivability, Per Round Damage Output, Support, and Destruction.

        Win Percentage is a simple calculation: 5 wins divided by the number of games it took to achieve those 5 wins. While I calculated the mean and standard deviation, they don't really tell us anything.

        Survivability is calculated as the percentage of their maximum HP that the Hero has left at the end of the game. By using the percentage of their original HP, it allows a more direct comparison between Heroes and also accounts for multi-character Hero decks. When doing the calculation, I round to the nearest percent in each game, and also round to the nearest percent when averaging the 5-Win result. The average Survivability is 32% with a Standard Deviation of 9.04%.

        Per Round Damage Output (PRDO) is a pure measure of the damage that the Hero puts out into the universe, NOT damage dealt; it's too easy for Damage Reduction, overkill, etc. to skew the results. So, damage boosts are counted, no matter the source of the boost, but, for purposes of PRDO, damage reduction, damage prevention, overkill, etc. is not counted. The average PRDO is 4.22 with a standard deviation of 2.0535.

        Support is any card that partially or completely benefits another Hero or Heroes. This includes but is not limited to: granting Plays, Powers or Draws; Healing; Allowing searches for cards; Boosting another Hero's damage; Granting another Hero Damage Reduction. The average number of Support cards is 6 with a standard deviation of 5.547.

        Destruction are cards that allow a Hero to destroy an Ongoing card, or more generally a Villain card. While it is not statistically analyzed, it is worth noting.

Results by Hero

Results: Win Percentage

Results: Survivability

Survivability: 32% average, standard deviation 9.04%

Results: Per Round Damage Output (PRDO)

PRDO 4.22 average, standard deviation 2.0535

Results: Support

Support 6 cards, standard deviation 5.547

Results: Destruction

Destruction: recorded but not analyzed.

OLD VERSION -- DEPRECATED -- DELETE WHRN UPDATE IS FINISHED

        When OblivAeon was in playtesting, many felt that the Heroes were skewing tougher than the Multiverse era Heroes. I was among them. As a result, I have treated them as a seperate group and left my stats based on the 26 original Heroes.
        My testing methodology is: Ra, K.N.Y.F.E., and the Hero being tested, versus Baron Blade, at the Mobile Defense Platform. I run the scenario until I have achieved five wins. Except for Win Percentage, the stats are based solely on the victorious games. I include stats for Survivability (percentage of original HP left), Per Round Damage Output (abbreviated PRDO; not damage dealt but total damage put out into the universe, including hero deck triggred self-damage, damage boosts, overkill damage, but excluding damage reductions), and number of Suport Cards (cards that boost other Heroes: allowing Plays, Powers, Draw, HP regains, Hero damage boosts, Non-Hero damage reduction, etc.). I also record number of cards that allow Ongoing Destruction, but mostly as a curiosity as a Hero without it in this scenario leaves the only hope against Baron Blade's Ongoings as KNYFE's 2 cards.
        Having the baseline values (Survivability 32% Standard Deviation 9.04%, PRDO 4.22 SD 2.0535, Support 6 SD 5.547), I have used it to playtest OblivAeon and Earth Prime Heroes, and custom Heroes (both my own and other people's). It is not, by any means, a perfect tool, but I feel it is a useful tool, especially during development.
        The summary of the stats to date can be found here.

NOTE: Cut-off for inclusion in this table is 8 Heroes from a single source. (I'm willing to accept (civil) arguements for why I should lower that threshold.)

Web page Copyright 2023 Michael J. Ahlers.
Sentinels of the Multiverse is the property of Greater Than Games. The Cauldron was created by Matthew Bishop. Earth Prime is the property of Green Ronin. All other items are the intellectual property of their respective creators.